By: James McCutcheon
Ever wonder why the weathermen on Denver’s news channels regularly fail to forecast the weather in Telluride? Maybe it’s because our weather is particularly hard to predict.

Denver meteorologists often mistakenly group Telluride and the San Juan Mountains with the rest of the Colorado Rockies. The key to forecasting our weather is to determine the location, shape and speed of the jet stream. The jet stream, a river of air that guides storms across North America from west to east, comes out of Canada across the northern Rockies and Great Plains. If it stays north and flows east, Denver can get snow while Telluride remains dry. If the jet stream dives toward southern California, which it often does during El Niño years (this year will be a mild El Niño event), moisture-laden air heads right for the San Juans, bringing some of our biggest storms. The other key to predicting heavy snows is the direction of the winds near the ground. The mountains surrounding Telluride can block winds and heavy snow from entering the valley. The best wind direction for snow is out of the open deserts of the west/southwest. Winds from the north and east are dry and tend to get blocked by the high peaks of the Rockies. When a strong low-pressure system is heading for the San Juans, the National Weather Service in Grand Junction will likely issue a winter storm watch for possible heavy snows during the next 12 to 36 hours. If conditions merit, that will be followed by a winter storm warning for expected heavy snows in the next 24 hours. If the winds ahead of the storm are out of the south-southeast, the onset of heavy snow is usually delayed by 6 to 12 hours. Telluride often gets periods of heavy snow showers or snow squalls well after the core of the system has passed.

The technologies used to predict weather have improved dramatically in the last five years. My personal favorite involves the use of remote sensing tools, such as satellite and radar image loops. The closest NEXRAD Doppler Radar station is located in Grand Junction, and the beam of that radar can extend 250 miles, covering the Telluride area except for a few radar shadows behind the tallest mountains. There have also been many advances in computer models that predict developing weather systems and the strength of winter storms. The best way to access the latest regional weather data is on the Internet site of the National Weather Service out of Grand Junction, located on the web at www.crh.noaa.gov/gjt/. Weather data from the Telluride Regional Airport can also be accessed from this site. The weather instruments at the airport report hourly temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind direction and speed. This information is also available by calling 970-728-1534.

Telluride Visitor Guide